Demand forecasting

Lanza offers three planning methods: reactive, proactive, and mixed. For each planning method, different forecasting algorithms are available. These settings can be adjusted on a segment and part level basis.

Configurable settings include:

Planning method
Forecast method
Smoothing factors (if applicable)
Demand stream
Initalisation period

Reactive planning

Suitable for forecasting based on historical demand. Lanza offers specialized forecasting algorithms aimed at fast moving and slow moving parts.

Fast movers

Lanza offers multiple forecasting algorithms for fast moving-parts. Where applicable, smoothing factors can be adjusted.

Moving Average (MA), applicable for parts with steady demand
Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), applicable for parts with fluctuating demand
Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), applicable for parts with trending demand
Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) or Holt-Winters, applicable for parts with seasonal demand
Optimal, option to let Lanza choose the optimal method based on minimizing the forecasting error

Slow movers

Lanza offers specialized forecasting algorithms to tackle the challenges of forecasting slow moving-parts. Because of the lack of data, regular forecasting methods often do not provide accurate results. For more information on forecasting slow movers, see Slow mover management.

Croston, applicable for (cheap) slow movers with intermittent demand.
Typical Demand Quantity (TDQ), applicable for (expensive) slow movers with lumpy and intermittent demand.

Proactive planning

Suitable for forecasting based on future expected demand. Future expected demand is typically gathered from future maintenance schedules, sales forecasts, production planning, or other sources of future expected demand.

Within future expected demand, Lanza differentiates between different demand streams, such as fixed reservations (amount and timing of demand is known beforehand, e.g., for preventative maintenance) and projected demand (amount and timing of demand is uncertain, e.g., for inspection-based maintenance). It is possible for Lanza to assist in creating future expected demand based on reliability information, for more information see reliability-based planning.

Using proactive planning, the reorder point is calculated based on the expected demand of a future planning period. This planning period can be configured by the user by adjusting the planning window. Using default settings, the planning window is the period between t₀ + lead time ↔ t₀ + lead time + lead time.

Mixed planning

Suitable for forecasting based on a combination of historical and future expected demand.

Within historical demand, Lanza differentiates between different demand streams, such planned and unplanned demand. Where possible, accounting for this difference enhances the forecasting accuracy.

Reliability-based planning

A specialized way, developed for the MRO-world, to provide input the proactive or mixed planning approach is to use reliability information.

In this approach, Lanza forecasts demand based on:

Asset utilization
Accounting for usage hours, travelled kilometers, on-offs, landings, etc.
Failure behavior
Accounting for Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) or Mean Time Between Unscheduled Removal (MTBUR).
Installed base
Accounting for the installed base for a part on asset and asset type-level.

Test

This is a test block

Classification & strategy

Management by exception